La evolución del Covid-19 en la semana del 13 al 19 de julio

Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA

¿Por qué se ha demorado el quiebre en Colombia?

 Hay varias diferencias que hay que señalar. Colombia lleva cuatro meses desde que se inició la cuarentena el 16 de marzo en Bogotá y varios departamentos, es decir, llevamos más de cuatro meses y nada que se presenta el quiebre, cuando en el resto del mundo, entre dos y tres meses esto ha ocurrido. Se esperaba que esto ocurriera a finales de junio o en julio. Es un tema para estudiar por qué esto ha pasado en Colombia. Lanzo cinco hipótesis.

¿Nos fuimos muy rápido a la cuarentena?

   Primero, parece que entramos muy rápido a la cuarentena sin ninguna estrategia diferente, deberíamos habernos demorado unas dos semanas para que se acelerara el contagio y no perjudicar tanto a la economía. Cuando se inició la cuarentena solo había 54 contagiados. Esas dos semanas de marzo costaron 5 billones del PIB y muchos empleos

La gente necesita recursos para quedarse en la casa

  En segundo lugar, Colombia, uno de los diez países más desiguales del mundo, con altos índices de pobreza, informalidad de más de 55,0%, alto desempleo antes de la pandemia, un sistema de salud pésimo, zonas con alto hacinamiento, barrios sin acueductos, falta de educación, paramilitarismo aún vivito, asesinatos, corrupción generalizada, un gobierno insensible y reaccionario, con ministros super ortodoxos, es imposible tener disciplina social. Es difícil que la gente se quede lo máximo que se pueda en la casa, cuando no hay dinero para comer. Es un imposible y no hay medidas para evitarlo. ¿Pueden colocarse cuarentenas, toques de queda, ley seca, lo que se quiera, pero cuando hay hambre, que ocurrirá cuando se acaben estas medidas y el confinamiento?

Ha faltado una verdadera estrategia de salud  

En tercer lugar, el problema no es solamente médico, aunque aquí se están cometiendo errores. Los países con éxito no bloquearon completamente sus economías y población, como Japón, Corea del Sur, Alemania, Taiwán, Cambodia, Cuba y otros, y el control de la epidemia fue excelente. Utilizaron acciones como testeos masivos, seguimiento trazabilidad de contactos (contact tracing), medidas preventivas, visitas a hogares, control de focos inmediatamente, aislándolos, suministro a la población de mascarillas, gel, alcohol, un buen sistema de salud, por supuesto, y ayudas económicas a los ciudadanos. Y esas estrategias tuvieron el menor impacto sobre la economía, de ahí su relevancia.

Hay que tener un sistema de medicina preventiva

   Cuatro, la medicina debe ser preventiva. La idea no es llenarnos de UCI para tratar enfermos, sino evitarlos. Esto es el gran ejemplo de Cuba, ellos están acostumbrados a una medicina preventiva, con personal de salud que visita las casas de los cubanos para chequearlos y evitar las enfermedades. En Colombia no se hace, por supuesto, porque aquí la medicina es un negocio. Esas ahora famosas 14 asociaciones tradicionales del sector salud en Colombia, para las cuales la solución es el aislamiento total y rígido, que quieren aislarnos como su gran medida, hay que tener en cuenta que un porcentaje importante de sus miembros son partidarios de la medicina privada, algunos son dueños de clínicas, socios de EPS. Son las organizaciones tradicionales, parte del poder panóptico, con una visión muy estrecha de la salud y como combatir el coronavirus, fuera de encerrar a la población. Ni siquiera piensan en los ejemplos exitosos de los países que he mencionado para aplicarlos en Colombia que hoy empiezan a ser consideradas en el mundo.  Esta medicina de las organizaciones ortodoxas son las que en el pasado analizó Michel Foucault y nos enseñó que su papel es controlar, vigilar, normalizar, servir de apéndice al poder disciplinario.

  En la mayoría de los municipios no existen hospitales o puestos de salud adecuados. La única estrategia para la mayoría de los alcaldes y gobernadores es el encierro, toques de queda y ley seca, porque no tienen ninguna política de salud.  No hay testeos, control de focos, visitas a los hogares, seguimiento de contactos, educación médica, repartición de mascarillas, gel, etc Todo se ha destruido por la politiquería y corrupción.

    Doy un ejemplo que conozco muy bien, el de San Gil, una población de 80 000 habitantes, que tenía un buen hospital, el San Juan de Dios, de primer nivel hace años. Hoy no existe, fue expoliado en una combinación de alcaldes, gobernadores y políticos corruptos que utilizaron el hospital para sus beneficios personales y clientelistas. Lo tumbaron para hacer un nuevo hospital y hoy es un campo de ruinas, lleno el sitio de malezas por la pésima contratación para reconstruirlo. Está en ruinas. Los enfermos hay que llevarlos al Socorro o Bucaramanga, no hay quien los trate. Y así, esto ocurre en cientos de municipios. Entonces, a única salida para los alcaldes es el encierro.  

 Falta un enfoque multidisciplinario e integral

En quinto lugar, hay que tener un enfoque multidisciplinario e integral. Multidisciplinario porque hay que consultar no solamente a los médicos y epidemiólogos, sino a sicoanalistas, siquiatras, sociólogos, economistas, ingenieros, politólogos,… Integral, porque el enfoque no puede ser solamente médico. Clave la respuesta económica, sin una política de ingresos es difícil resolver el contagio. A la gente hay que darle dinero para vivir, ingreso igual a un salario mínimo para que no sean obligados a salir a rebuscarse dinero para suplir sus necesidades mínimas de subsistencia. Si esto no se hace, no hay forma de controlar a la población. Se hacen cuarentenas de catorce días, pero después se vuelve a lo mismo de antes. Infortunadamente no se ha hecho ni el poder panóptico piensa hacerlo.

Ingresos para la gente, la economía es importante

    De lo que he estudiado, es clave que todos los ciudadanos tengan su ingreso para poder sobrevivir durante este tiempo. Casi que es la medida más importante para que las clases de pocos recursos, los informales, los vendedores ambulantes, la gente de la clase media que se quedó sin empleo, no tengan que salir a la calle a rebuscar dinero, hacinarse, aglomerarse y no cumplir con un distanciamiento social.

Desafortunadamente el gobierno nacional se contentó con dar limosnas a unos dos a tres millones de ciudadanos. Es un gobierno antisocial, super reaccionario que no oye. Yo protesto y me duele lo que le está ocurriendo a millones de compatriotas. Encerrarlos en estas condiciones es enviarlos a la miseria. Pero, igualmente, dejarlos en la calle vendiendo tampoco es la solución en esta época de crisis. Hay que reconocer la realidad, no hay nada que hacer con este gobierno de Duque, Uribe y Carrasquilla.

Colombia con respecto al mundo

Ya la mayoría de los países han llegado o están para llegar al quiebre, excepto Colombia.  En Sur América, en Chile, Perú y Ecuador, han venido disminuyendo los casos diarios hace más de una semana.  El Brasil de Bolsonaro, ha disminuido en los últimos días el crecimiento en los casos nuevos.

   Desde hace cuatro días, Colombia es el quinto país con más casos diarios, superado solamente por Estados Unidos, Brasil, India y Sur África.

  En total de casos ocupamos el puesto 18, el 18 de julio superamos a Francia.

  En cuanto a casos y muertos por millón de habitantes, las cifras eran al 19 de julio de 3875 y 132 respectivamente, contra medias mundiales de 1884 y 78,2, o sea, estamos mal (Worldmeters.info coronavirus). No podemos consolarnos porque estamos mejor que Chile, Perú, México y Brasil.

  En cuanto a pruebas por millón de habitantes, la cifra de Colombia de 23 769 es muy baja con respecto a la mayoría de los países, ocupamos el 19 de julio el puesto 135 de 215 países y regiones registradas por Worl.meter

Una semana de fuertes cambios

 La semana del 13 al 19 de julio fue de fuertes cambios en relación con la semana anterior. El promedio de casos nuevos fue 5614,9 en comparación con 4815,0 (para un crecimiento diario de 2,36%). Se dio un salto a más de 8000 casos nuevos los días 16, 17 y 18 de julio, una cifra altísima, no solamente con respecto a Colombia sino con relación a la experiencia internacional, cifra que han superado muy pocos países, entre ellos Brasil, India, Sur África, Estados Unidos y Rusia, y pare de contar. Ni siquiera España, Italia y Francia llegaron a estos valores.

    Pero el 19 de julio cayó la cifra de casos nuevos a 6578, una fuerte variación, normal por la variabilidad que ha caracterizado el movimiento de la epidemia en Colombia.

    En cuanto a las muertes, se pasó de un promedio diario lineal de 177,6 en la semana del 6 al 12 de julio a 204,1 en la semana del del 13 al 19 de julio, un incremento diario promedio de 2,0%. El 10 de julio por primera vez se pasó la barrera de los 200 muertos diarios, pero del 11 al 15 de julio se bajó menos de 200. El 16 de julio se saltó a 215 muertes, el 17 a 259, el 18 a 228 y el 19 a 220.

  Esta situación es gravísima, no se esperaba que ocurriera. Hasta el 12 de julio las proyecciones que efectuábamos eran bastante precisas, pero a partir del 13 de julio todo cambió. Esperábamos que para julio se diera el quiebre, ahora no queremos opinar nada, porque Colombia es impredecible. Cualquier pronóstico de más de tres días termina superado por la realidad.

Hechos fundamentales

  Ya con respecto a los resultados, en general siguen las conclusiones, en el sentido que la pandemia se concentra por el número de casos en seis regiones: Bogotá, Atlántico, Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, Bolívar yMagdalena, pero con e 50,0% o más entre Bogotá y Atlántico.

  Se ha desmejorado la situación esta semana en Cundinamarca, Córdoba, Santander, Sucre, Cesar, La Guajira, Norte de Santander, Meta, Putumayo y Caquetá, pero hay mucha variabilidad de un día para otro.

   Se mantiene o han bajado los nuevos casos en los restantes 16 departamentos.

   Se presentan seis gráficas de la evolución de los casos nuevos para Colombia y cuatro grandes grupos de regiones según promedio móvil de siete días y para las muertes diarias. Su visualización permite analizar que viene pasando en Colombia, Bogotá y los 31 departamentos.

Gráfico 1 Evolución de casos nuevos a nivel de Colombia

Gráfico 2 Evolución casos nuevos de Bogotá, Atlántico, Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, Cundinamarca, Risaralda, Bolívar y Magdalena

Gráfica 3 Evolución de casos nuevos en Huila, Nte Santander, Quindío, Caldas, Meta, Nariño, Cesar y Santander

Gráfico 4 Evolución de casos nuevos en Boyacá, Tolima, Cauca, Córdoba, Casanare, San Andrés, Sucre y Amazonas

Gráfica 5 Evolución de casos nuevos en La Guajira, Caquetá, Arauca, Guainía, Putumayo, Vaupés, Vichada y, Guaviare

Gráfica 6 Muertes diarias en Colombia línea y móvil

@DiegoOteroP

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  279. Making The Most Of Meals: Recommendations For Ideal Nutrients Consumption Are you presently generally in search of an even more effective way to handle your nutrients? This item consists of nourishment information and facts which you might have been informed. The use of these pointers will guide you boost your life-style. Dietary fiber is a healthy diet. Fibers aids in controlling weight reduction by assisting you to sense full much longer. Additionally, it works to aid in lowering blood flow cholesterol. Fibers could also lessen the chance of diabetes and types of cancer at the same time. Attempt to add a lot of garlic cloves daily in your diet program. Garlic clove is a potent antioxidant that can decrease the danger of severe ailments like center illness and many forms of cancer. Furthermore, it includes organic antibacterial and fungus. Add more garlic cloves to your daily diet. Take in meals of all distinct colored food products. Vegetables and fruit that are vibrant in color give us a great deal of nourishment with out plenty of calories. Make an attempt to get one or more providing of the vegatables and fruits with each dinner. If you’re ingesting a fresh fruits or anything just like a potato, include that within your food simply because many of the important vitamins and minerals and herbal antioxidants are based in the epidermis. Buy your B12 to possess satisfactory reddish colored blood tissue. Vegans as well as the older may well not get all the b vitamin-12 because they require. Folks experiencing anemia also in danger. It is possible to go on a health supplement, or seek out this nutritional in breakfast cereal products. Prior to heading out to the Thanksgiving holiday evening meal, try to eat a little one thing. You are more likely eat too much when gonna Thanksgiving holiday dinner having a abdomen which is vacant. Consuming some thing healthier in advance will assist you to top off faster and avoid eating too much. People who have diabetes could have trouble getting a bunch of their dietary demands fulfilled. These can be tackled by consuming routinely since it keeps the blood sugar. They need to consume lots of refreshing vegetables and fruits, goods with wholegrain and merchandise from dairy with reduced body fat. They must eat out at a similar times everyday. Drinks preference great and are great for you. On this page is a simple method to pump motor within the nutritional content of your tasty smoothie even better for you. Add a dab of flax-seed essential oil or cocoa natural powder (which contains herbal antioxidants) to the shake.These can provide you with the smoothie. Diabetics needs to be very careful since liquor can decrease glucose levels to plummet. Deprivation is not exciting. Nutrition doesn’t include deprivation, it’s just about ingesting appropriately quite often and moderating exactly how much consume in the terrible stuff. With any good luck, this item has suggested the convenience with which you can increase your nutrition on a daily basis.

  280. When someone writes an paragraph he/she retains the idea of a user in his/her mind that how a user can understand it. So that’s why this post is great. Thanks!|

  281. Your style is so unique in comparison to other folks I have read stuff from. Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just bookmark this blog.

  282. Consuming Well Will Be The Time frame Of Living Nicely Nourishment is a very significant a part of having a wholesome life style. We all want excellent overall health, but just how do we allow it to be occur? It isn’t as challenging as you might assume. Utilize these methods for a far healthier and more content person. Consuming new fresh fruit and many fruits daily is sure to enhance your nourishment values.The USDA advocates that you simply eat out at minimum 9 to as much as 13 portions of fruit and veggies daily. That seems extreme, but you can find them in. A brand new window of orange juice or some tomato sauce on noodles can add up as you providing every. If once you vacation, it is prudent to maintain protein pubs near on hand. You could know that standard meals at airports are difficult to get in large airports. Sometimes when you find yourself rushing to get via safety, waiting for your flight, or sit eager on the aircraft with out foods. Getting these protein bars will give you fill out the spaces while you are vacationing. It is vital to enjoy protein every single day. Protein are crucial in muscle development and then in preserving healthier function of internal organs. Additionally, they important to mobile advancement and you will metabolize energy better. Health proteins also provides the body combat sickness. Foods that contain protein consist of species of fish, dairy, meats and chicken and soy products merchandise. These foods have plenty of sugras and plenty of «terrible» body fat. Buy your various meats and fresh vegetables refreshing vegetables and meat to get the most benefits from them. Salmon is a superb food to include in your good diet. Salmon features lots of omega3 fatty acids as well as in niacin. Omega-3 fatty acids can lower the possibility of this sort of circumstances as heart disease, including cardiovascular disease, and depressive disorders niacin can minimize the potential risk of Alzheimer’s condition. Those with all forms of diabetes may have problems receiving all of their dietary needs satisfied. These can be resolved by consuming frequently since it maintains the glucose levels. They need to consume plenty of new fruit and veggies, merchandise with whole grain and merchandise from dairy food with reduced excess fat. They need to eat at the same occasions everyday. By using this method will help you prevent going out to eat an issue that is bad. Having a excellent selection within your food options stops from turning into getting to and bored to tears for something poor. Diabetes sufferers should be cautious given that alcoholic beverages can decrease glucose levels to plummet. Hopefully, can make use of the ideas that you just evaluated to boost your total well being. Hopefully you’re much more informed about nutrients should you didn’t know quite definitely well before. The following tips should be put on your lifestyle daily.

  283. You made some really good points there. I looked on the internet for more information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site.

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  285. The other day, while I was at work, my sister stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a twenty five foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!|

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  287. Howdy just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.|

  288. Get Inspired To Eat Good Food By Using These Nourishment Recommendations This article is perfect for you if you want to stay in 2nd group of people instead of the initially. It can do not need to be challenging to eat correctly. You don’t must totally alter your diet, and you’ll learn that this information will allow you to get on the right path rapidly. Eating fresh veggies and fruits daily is great nourishment principles. The USDA advocates that you simply eat at the very least 9 to 13 different portions of veggies and fruits on a daily basis. Even if this looks like numerous portions, it really isn’t too hard to include each one of these portions. A brand new window of apple juices or perhaps a tomato-structured marinade on noodles can count up as helpings. Necessary protein offer a lot of positive capabilities within your body and must be a part of an effective diet program. Healthy proteins are instrumental in muscle development and then in preserving wholesome function of internal organs. Additionally they help your body’s metabolic process mobile phone procedures. Proteins also play a vital role in the immunity process. Foods that contain sufficient protein are dairy, fowl, fish and various meats and soy products products. This allows you to experience dining out with out sabotaging your persistence for very good nutrients. Dim dark chocolate contains chemical compounds named flavonoids that keep the blood pressure down. The antioxidants contained in dim chocolates includes operates to improve your bad cholesterol. To obtain the advantages, just be sure your chocolates containing a minimum of 70 percent cocoa. Don’t overdo it with the chocolate because it nonetheless a high calorie food items so appreciate it in moderation. Nut products are nourishing choice in case the choice is correct. A few almonds brings fibers to your diet regime for any crunchy and extremely delightful. Among the toughest, nevertheless tough, ways to obtain proper nutrients would be to break any addiction to junk meals and sweet treats. Junk food is obsessive for an extended period of your time. Urges and food cravings pangs of these meals can continue a long time after the alteration to a much healthier diet plan. You should overlook yearnings or wishes for the more healthy choices. If you replace ground turkey for soil meat, it is possible to know numerous health advantages, however some individuals aren’t way too fond of floor turkey’s dryness. You can include organic olive oil and cut red onion to further improve the flavor to make your turkey much more juices. Your meat will likely be less excess fat and still have great taste. Educating yourself about diet can help you have the right options. Remember that it can be in your best interest to make use of the tips you only go through. No one can do this however you. You must choose to reside much better and eat greater on your own.

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  293. The Key To Maintaing A Balanced Diet Diet can be a key aspect in a person’s health insurance and general effectively-being. Continue reading this come about. Foods that have been overly packaged will not great to enjoy when weight-loss. The ingredients outlined should be easy and very clear so that you can understand. Steer clear of food that have a number of substances listed on the content label. Require a multi-vitamin to dietary supplement your system needs. It will help you get minerals and vitamins that you require over the course of within your foods. Try to put protein to your diet using their company sources of protein. There are lots of kinds of non-various meats health proteins around. You will discover lots of proteins in seafood, tofu and almonds or beans. Most of these alternatives can serve as a primary course or be used as additives for some other meals. Keep the meals thrilling by testing different types of necessary protein that you use. When thinking about a diet that provides a good dietary level, make an effort to integrate at least 8-10 oz of low fat various meats everyday. This can make sure that you try to eat the amount of protein and metal you will need. Some applicants incorporatebison and bison, or another lean slashes. Cease ingesting food whenever your body offers you are almost full. This can help to stop you from overeating foods. This tasty grain contains 14 gr of higher-good quality health proteins for each and every 100 gr taken. Quinoa may be used in so many different food. In the event you substitute terrain poultry for soil beef, you can recognize numerous health benefits, however a lot of people aren’t as well partial to terrain turkey’s dryness. You could add olive oil and sliced onions to further improve the flavor and make your poultry more drinks. Your meats will be significantly less fat and have wonderful flavoring. Residing a good, healthy life-style isn’t as hard as you may believe. In terms of enhancing your health and physique, few situations are as vital as your willingness to comply with basic healthy concepts. Following nutritional guidelines is going to make you much healthier and happier.

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  311. Nutrients Suggest That Will Streamline Your Daily Life Have you been thinking about having a far healthier life-style? This part consists of nutrients you may have in no way recognized. Utilizing these suggestions can enhance your daily life. Consuming fresh fresh fruits and fruit each day is certain to boost your nutrition ideals.The USDA says that at least 9 portions of fruits and vegetables every day. Even though this looks like a large number of servings, you can actually ingest that a great many helpings. A cup of orange liquid or a tomato-based sauce on spaghetti can add up as one servicing each and every. Ingesting a big number of greens and greens daily is useful nourishment beliefs. The encouraged everyday allowance for veggies and fruits is 9 to 13 portions every day. That might appear to be a great deal to you, but you can get them in. A window of the apple company juice or some tomato marinade counts as portions. Do you need to get rid of a number of the steak you consume? Use red meat to include much more taste to grain and greens.This practice is well-known in Eastern countries which may have a reduced rate of heart disease. Women who are breastfeeding or expecting must take additional care of their nutrients. A good way to guarantee those health proteins needs are accomplished is always to merge egg white within a dinner. Egg whites are exceedingly low in cholesterol and contain a great deal of protein that can help pregnant women! Pasteurized chicken eggs are suggested for avoiding health threats like salmonella. Setting up a delicious and entertaining. On this page is one way to push in the dietary content of your delicious shake even better for you. Include flax seed with omega-3 essential fatty acids or cocoa natural powder in your healthy smoothie to have an anti-oxidant-abundant pick-me-up. Including one of these brilliant two things can certainly make drinks tastier and offer them extra vitamins and minerals for better immunity. This delicious grain contains 14 grams of high-high quality protein for every 100 grams eaten. Quinoa works extremely well in so many different meals. You are able to realize numerous health benefits, although a lot of people aren’t way too keen on ground turkey’s dryness, in the event you alternative terrain turkey for terrain meat. You can include extra virgin olive oil and sliced onions to further improve the taste to make your poultry far more drinks. Your meat will be much less excess fat and still have amazing taste. Small adjustments to the diet program can bring numerous advantages to the wellness. To reduce your tension, find more power and enhance your concentrate, take advantage of the recommendations out of this report. There’s no time at all much like the give to begin to make much healthier ingesting selections you’ll be very impressed by the amount of a change it can make!

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