Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA
Para conocer que está pasando con el Covid 19 en los Estados Unidos, presento a continuación varias gráficas sobre los casos acumulados, los casos diarios, la evolución de los muertos acumulados y de las muertes diarias, con información del 13 de marzo al 31 de mayo de 2020, un total de 78 días, más que suficiente para apreciar que ha ocurrido con esta epidemia en el país del norte (Ver cuadro 1 sobre los datos del Covid.19 en los Estados Unidos).
Cuadro 1 Datos sobre el Covid-19 en los Estados Unidos
Fecha | Total | Nuevos | Total | Muertes diarias |
Casos | casos | casos | Muertos | |
13-mar | 2183 | 572 | 48 | 7 |
14-mar | 2771 | 252 | 58 | 10 |
15-mar | 3754 | 1255 | 68 | 10 |
16-mar | 4604 | 804 | 95 | 27 |
17-mar | 6357 | 1526 | 121 | 26 |
18-mar | 9317 | 2786 | 171 | 50 |
19-mar | 13898 | 4512 | 239 | 68 |
20-mar | 19551 | 5546 | 309,00 | 70 |
21-mar | 24418 | 6503 | 374 | 65 |
22-mar | 33840 | 6887 | 509,00 | 135 |
23-mar | 44189 | 10786 | 689,00 | 180 |
24-mar | 55398 | 10106 | 957,00 | 268 |
25-mar | 68905 | 13507 | 1260,00 | 303 |
26-mar | 86379 | 17474 | 1614,00 | 354 |
27-mar | 105217 | 18838 | 2110,00 | 496 |
28-mar | 124788 | 19571 | 2754,00 | 644 |
29-mar | 144980 | 20192 | 3251,00 | 497 |
30-mar | 168177 | 23197 | 4066,00 | 815 |
31-mar | 193353 | 25176 | 5151,00 | 1085 |
1-abr | 220295 | 26942 | 6394,00 | 1243 |
2-abr | 250708 | 30413 | 7576,00 | 1182 |
3-abr | 283477 | 32769 | 8839,00 | 1263 |
4-abr | 317994 | 34517 | 10384,00 | 1545 |
5-abr | 343747 | 25753 | 11793,00 | 1409 |
6-abr | 375348 | 31601 | 13298,00 | 1505 |
7-abr | 409222 | 33874 | 15526,00 | 2228 |
8-abr | 441569 | 32347 | 17691,00 | 2165 |
9-abr | 475515 | 33946 | 19802 | 2111 |
10-abr | 509604 | 34089 | 22038,00 | 2236 |
11-abr | 539942 | 30338 | 24062,00 | 2024 |
12-abr | 567708 | 27766 | 25789,00 | 1727 |
13-abr | 594693 | 26985 | 27515,00 | 1726 |
14-abr | 621953 | 27260 | 30081,00 | 2566 |
15-abr | 652474 | 30521 | 32712,00 | 2631 |
16-abr | 682454 | 29980 | 34905,00 | 2193 |
17-abr | 714822 | 32368 | 37448,00 | 2543 |
18-abr | 743901 | 29079 | 39331,00 | 1883 |
19-abr | 770014 | 26113 | 40901,00 | 1570 |
20-abr | 798145 | 28131 | 42853,00 | 1952 |
21-abr | 824229 | 26084 | 45536,00 | 2683 |
22-abr | 854385 | 30156 | 47894,00 | 2358 |
23-abr | 886274 | 31889 | 50234,00 | 2340 |
24-abr | 925232 | 38958 | 52191,00 | 1957 |
25-abr | 960651 | 35419 | 54256,00 | 2065 |
26-abr | 987160 | 26509 | 55412,00 | 1156 |
27-abr | 1010356 | 23196 | 56795,00 | 1383 |
28-abr | 1035396 | 25040 | 59265,00 | 2470 |
29-abr | 1064194 | 28798 | 61655,00 | 2390 |
30-abr | 1095023 | 30829 | 63856,00 | 2201 |
1-may | 1131030 | 36007 | 65753,00 | 1897 |
2-may | 1160774 | 29744 | 67444,00 | 1691 |
3-may | 1188122 | 27348 | 68597,00 | 1153 |
4-may | 1212835 | 24713 | 69921,00 | 1324 |
5-may | 1237633 | 24798 | 72242,00 | 2321 |
6-may | 1263092 | 25459 | 74799,00 | 2557 |
7-may | 1292623 | 29531 | 76928,00 | 2129 |
8-may | 1321785 | 29162 | 78615,00 | 1687 |
9-may | 1347309 | 25524 | 80037,00 | 1422 |
10-may | 1367638 | 20078 | 80787,00 | 750 |
11-may | 1385834 | 18131 | 81847,00 | 1060 |
12-may | 1408636 | 22802 | 83718,00 | 1871 |
13-may | 1430347 | 21711 | 85540,00 | 1822 |
14-may | 1457593 | 27246 | 87293,00 | 1753 |
15-may | 1484285 | 26692 | 88895,00 | 1602 |
16-may | 1507773 | 23488 | 90113,00 | 1218 |
17-may | 1527664 | 19891 | 90978,00 | 865 |
18-may | 1550294 | 22609 | 91981,00 | 1003 |
19-may | 1570583 | 20509 | 93533,00 | 1552 |
20-may | 1592722 | 20994 | 94936,00 | 1403 |
21-may | 1620897 | 28717 | 96347,00 | 1411 |
22-may | 1644899 | 23961 | 97645,00 | 1298 |
23-may | 1666828 | 22659 | 98678,00 | 1033 |
24-may | 1686436 | 18707 | 99293,00 | 615 |
25-may | 1706226 | 19790 | 99788,00 | 495 |
26-may | 1725257 | 19890 | 100572,00 | 784 |
27-may | 1745803 | 20301 | 102107,00 | 1535 |
28-may | 1768461 | 22658 | 103320,00 | 1213 |
29-may | 1793530 | 25069 | 104542,00 | 1222 |
30-may | 1816820 | 23290 | 105557,00 | 1015 |
31-may | 1837165 | 20345 | 106194,00 | 637 |
Las gráficas 2 y 4 son más dicientes, y es lo que hay que estudiar: se refieren a los nuevos casos diarios de infectados y de muertes. Aquí se ve claramente que en los Estados Unidos se dio un quiebre en la epidemia entre el 10 y el 17 de abril.
Gráfico 2 Nuevos casos de infectados en forma lineal y promedio móvil de una semana

Gráfico 4 Nuevos casos diarios de muertos en los Estados Unidos

Los gráficos 1 y 3 presentan los casos acumulados y las muertes. Como es propio de toda epidemia, en las primeras semanas la expansión es lenta y después comienza su propagación exponencial y se llega a un punto en que las curvas comienzan a disminuir de pendiente, como se aprecia en dichos gráficos.
Gráfico 1 Contagiados acumulados en los Estados Unidos

Gráfico 3 Muertos acumulados en los Estados Unidos

Esto va contra la opinión generaliza que en los Estados Unidos se está en una grave situación desbordada del Covid-19. Las cifras muestras que esto no es así, que en el país del Norte se está en la etapa del quiebre. Efectivamente los nuevos casos que eran de 30 000 y más ya han bajado a valores de 20 000. Y las muertes diarias, que llegaron hasta más de 2600 casos, a partir de mayo se redujeron a menos de 2000 y el 31 de mayo fueron 637.
Entonces, lo de Estados Unidos es interesante porque el aislamiento no fue tan fuerte como en otros países. A pesar de todas las críticas al comportamiento sobre Trump, hubo gobernadores y alcaldes que impusieron medidas de control.
La epidemia comenzó en marzo en los Estados Unidos como en Colombia, y ellos, en mes y medio llegaron al pico mientras en Colombia vamos para tres meses y no lo hemos alcanzado aún. ¿Qué se puede pensar? Que aceleraron la epidemia y llegaron pronto al pico.
Esto muestra que hay que ser muy cuidadoso con los análisis. El odio a Trump no puede dejarnos ver la realidad porque esto si nos lleva a graves equivocaciones políticas. Yo, por ejemplo, soy un crítico muy fuerte, no solo de Trump, sino del sistema estadunidense de violencia y de intervenciones genocidas en todo el mundo, pero esto no me impide hacer análisis fríos, no en caliente, no con el hígado, sino con la razón. Parecería que la epidemia actúa independientemente de lo que hagan los gobiernos. La epidemia sigue su propia ley de desarrollo: penetra, avanza lentamente, se acelera, decrece y desaparece.
Hay todo un terreno para investigar de las diferentes experiencias que se han dado en el mundo para tratar el Covid-9: aislamientos exagerados, aislamientos flexibles, semi aislamientos, poco aislamiento o ningún aislamiento. En la mayor parte de los países asiáticos no cerraron las economías y el virus poco avanzó porque utilizaron otras estrategias de cuidado personal y colectivo, además de que contaban con experiencias pasadas y estaban preparados. La enseñanza es la de que no hay que ser rígido sino muy flexibles y no cerrarse en mitos como en Colombia.
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