Coronavirus: Rebrote en Colombia y varios países de Europa

Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA

Como siempre, las predicciones del gobierno nacional y la alcaldía de Bogotá fallan. Nos hablaban de un rebrote terrible en noviembre o diciembre, pero desde el 4 de octubre la tendencia decreciente cambió en Colombia, porque del 5 al 12 de octubre volvimos a crecer. Hubo un interregno del 13 al 19 de octubre, de reducción en los infectados diarios, y a partir del 20 de octubre otra vez volvieron a aumentar los contagiados.

 A nivel mundial en Estados Unidos vuelven a crecer los infectados, con cifras por encima de 60.000 y muertes diarias cerca de 1000.

En Europa a 27 de octubre de 2020, 20 países, cuatro más que antes del 19 de octubre, tienen infectados por encima de 1.000 diarios, con Francia que ha tenido más de 40.000; Italia, Reino Unido y España alrededor de 20.000 y Alemania, Holanda, Rusia, Holanda, Bélgica y Polonia por encima de 10.000.

Colombia y el mundo

En el periodo del 19 al 28 de octubre la posición de Colombia en los principales indicadores mejoró en casos de contagiados, al clasificarse en el octavo puesto y en el 23 por millón habitantes, el 27 de octubre. En total de acumulados fue superado por España, Francia y Argentina, dados los altos crecimientos en los dos primeros países, con cifras diarias superiores a 20.000 y 30.000 casos..

En muertos Colombia aparece en el onceavo puesto y en el 14 por millón de habitantes.

En pruebas por millón de habitantes sigue en el puesto 93, para un total de 4’838.104 pruebas para 31’057.696 habitantes, lo que significa que el 9,48 por ciento de los colombianos han sido testeados, una proporción baja. Del total de pruebas del 27 de octubre, 16,6% resultaron positivos lo que significa que se hacen pocas pruebas, porque lo normal es que este porcentaje este por debajo de 5%.

Análisis global de Colombia

Colombia es un caso especial, por su alta volatilidad. En octubre van varios cambios en las tendencias, que se pueden definir en los siguientes ciclos:

  1. De marzo al 16 de agosto se produjo el crecimiento exponencial que llegó a un máximo de 11.549 casos diarios
  2. ) A partir del 17 de agosto se inició la reducción de los infectados diarios hasta llegar a un mínimo de 5.999 el 4 de octubre, para 48 días de reducción continua
  3. Del 5 al 12 de octubre vuelve una etapa corta de nueve días de crecimiento de los casos diarios hasta llegar a 8.132 infectados.
  4.   Del 13 al 19 de octubre se regresa a un período de reducción de los casos hasta llegar a 6.684, y
  5. A partir del 20 de octubre se vuelve a crecer fuertemente, con 8.439 casos el 27 de octubre

 Es decir, desde el 5 de octubre se rompió la tendencia decreciente, lo que se aprecia muy bien en el gráfico 1.

Estamos entonces en la etapa del rebrote, aunque no se han llegado aún a los niveles de antes del 16 de agosto. Esto contradice las afirmaciones del Ministerio de Salud, de la Secretaria de Salud de Bogotá y de los expertos que siempre consultan los medios, de que la etapa de rebrote se daría en noviembre y septiembre. Ya estamos en ella, es la verdad.

En muertes diarias, del pico de 324 el día 14 de agosto, se inició una reducción continua hasta llegar a un mínimo de 156 el 9 de octubre. Del 10 de octubre en adelante se volvió a un incremento en las muertes diarias, de 159 el 19 de octubre hasta llegar a 184 el 27 de octubre. (Gráfico 2).

 La tasa de recuperación se estabilizó en 90% del 20 al 27 de octubre, parándose el aumento que se venía dando desde el comienzo de la pandemia.

Hubo un incremento de las pruebas a cerca de 40.000 por día en octubre, pero estas no han aumentado suficientemente, cuando se requieren una 100.000 diarias para poder controlar la pandemia. Fuera de la escasez de las pruebas, existe la demora en dar los resultados. Con esto es imposible controlar la pandemia, porque se requiere que los resultados sean con una demora de un día para poder aislar al contagiado y definir los contactos e ir a hacerles las pruebas. Esto no está ocurriendo en Colombia, con algunas excepciones. Es una falla gravísima.

Gráfico 1 Dinámica del Covid-19 en Colombia

Gráfico 2 Evolución de las muertes diarias

La tasa de letalidad, las muertes confirmadas sobre el total de contagios confirmados han venido disminuyendo continuamente. Como es normal en este tipo de epidemias, al comienzo, en la etapa exponencial, a7menta la tasa de letalidad para llegar a un pico y luego disminuir. Esto ha ocurrido en Colombia, al inicio se aceleró la tasa de letalidad hasta llegar a un pico de 4,75% el 20 de abril e iniciar la etapa decreciente, disminuyendo continuamente hasta que el 27 de octubre ya estaba en 2,96%. 

Gráfico 3 Evolución de la tasa de letalidad

Análisis por regiones

En los nueve días del 19 al 27 de octubre todo ha cambiado, puesto que departamentos que estaban avanzando, retrocedieron. De 33 regiones, 20 desmejoraron del 19 al 27 de octubre, una situación lamentable (Cuadro 1).

Bajan o están estables Cesar, Arauca, Putumayo, Santander, Quindío, Cauca, San Andrés, Amazonas, Chocó, Vichada, Guainía, Sucre y Guajira.  

El problema para el aumento de los casos diarios se concentra en Antioquia, Valle de Cauca y Cundinamarca, como grandes regiones de contagio. No han podido llegar al punto máximo los departamentos del Huila Caldas, Boyacá y Tolima.

Cuadro 1 Situación del Covis-19 por territorios del 19 al 27 de octubre

RegiónSituación del 19 al 27 de octubre
BogotáCrece
AntioquiaCrece
Valle del CaucaCrece
BolívarCrece
CundinamarcaCrece
RisaraldaCrece
AtlánticoCrece
MagdalenaCrece
HuilaCrece  y parece no ha llegado al pico
Norte de SantanderCrece
MetaCrece desde el 24 de octubre
NariñoCrece
CesarBaja
SantanderEstable
QuindíoEstable
CaldasCrece no ha llegado al pico
BoyacáCrece no ha llegado al pico
TolimaCrece no ha llegado al pico
CaucaBaja
CórdobaCrece
GuajiraHasta el 26 baja y sube el 27
CasanareCrece
San AndrésBaja
CaquetáSube
ChocoBaja
SucreBaja
AmazonasBaja
GuainíaBaja
PutumayoBaja
VaupésCrece
VichadaBaja
GuaviareCrece
AraucaBaja

Fuente: Banco de datos del autor

Concentración en pocas regiones del incremento en la pandemia

En el cuadro 2 se presenta una comparación entre los contagiados del 19 al 27 de octubre. Hubo un incremento de 67335 infectados, para un promedio diario de 8417. Antioquia explicó el 22,05% del incremento, seguido por Bogotá con 21,94% y Valle del Cauca con 8,73%, para un total de estos tres territorios de 51,92%. A continuación, vienen Huila, Santander, Cundinamarca, Caldas y Tolima con porcentajes superiores a 3,0%, que explican el 20,31% del incremento en los casos con Covid-19.

  Como lo hemos venido afirmando, la reducción de los infectados depende principalmente de Bogotá, Antioquia y Valle del Cauca y, en segundo lugar, de los otros cinco departamentos mencionados (gráfico 4).

Gráfico 4 Evolución de Covid-19 en Bogotá, Antioquia y Valle del Cauca

Cuadro 2 Incremento en los contagiados del 19 al 27 de octubre

Fuente: Con base en informes del INS

Proyecciones

A finales de diciembre, si sigue el promedio de 178 muertas diarios del 19 al 27 de octubre, se llegaría a 42 070 muertes en total. En cuanto a los infectados totales, con un promedio respectivo de 8183 diarios, se podría tener un total de 1 565 113 al 31 de diciembre. Estos valores son estimativos muy preliminares porque predecir el coronavirus más de 15 días es una osadía.

Todo puede cambiar si los promedios se mueven hacia arriba o por debajo de lo planteado.   Lo mejor que se puede hacer, para ser serios, es actualizar las predicciones cada semana, con la nueva información que vaya saliendo.

Conclusiones

Todo cambió desde el 5 de octubre, fecha en que la tendencia decreciente de los infectados se modificó hacia el alza, excepto un interregno del 13 al 19 de octubre.

Sin embargo, hay que esperar unos días más para comprobar sí efectivamente ya se comenzó un nuevo período de aumento en infectados, o como se dice, si el rebrote ya se inició en verdad, o es una etapa corta de rebrote.

Pero lo que sí es claro es que no estamos en ninguna meseta, sino efectivamente en una nueva etapa de aumento del Covid-19. Es determinante lo que ocurra en Bogotá, Antioquia y el Valle del Cauca. Aunque Bogotá está por debajo de 2000 casos infectados diarios, todavía está en promedios cercanos a 1800 como Antioquia mientras el Valle del Cauca ronda por los 700. Cuando Bogotá y Antioquia estén por debajo de 1000 casos diarios, podemos cantar victoria a nivel nacional.

Cundinamarca, Huila y Santander están en promedios de 300 a 400 casos diarios, que hacen entre los tres cerca de 1200. Sin embargo, si reducen sus infectados, influirán, igualmente, en el control de la pandemia.

Como siempre, no hay que apresurarse a sacar conclusiones para el mediano y largo plazo, con base en lo ocurrido, porque, como siempre, lleva a equivocaciones. No se puede proyectar el mediano plazo con lo que sucede con el presente reciente. El futuro no es igual siempre al pasado, dicen los econometristas. No hagamos de Casandras. 

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