Pandemia: Colombia muestra las peores cifras (de-crecimiento)

Un informe de Radio France International (RFI) del pasado 16 de agosto muestra que, comparado con los países de América Latina golpeados por la crisis sanitaria global, Colombia maneja las peores cifras de crecimiento económico.

Solo la prensa extranjera permite enterarse de que hubo una caída del 15,7 por ciento del PIB, pero el Gobierno nacional se esconde detrás de la pandemia para justificar estas cifras. Según Luis Carlos Reyes, director del Observatorio Fiscal de la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana en Bogotá, “lo sorprendente no es que haya habido una caída en el crecimiento económico, sino que haya sido tan grave; no tenía que ser así”.

En este contexto, la estrepitosa caída del PIB y la disparada histórica del desempleo se explicaría por la negativa del gobierno de Iván Duque a seguir las recomendaciones que vienen haciendo expertos desde el inicio de la crisis del coronavirus. 

Lo que puede resultar barato para este gobierno, le va a salir muy caro al país”. Foto de Presidencia de la República

Reyes afirmó que “el gobierno no ha manifestado verdadera intención de subsidiar las nóminas de las empresas afectadas por la pandemia para, de esta forma, apoyar a los trabajadores y a esas empresas que tienen dificultad para pagar los salarios”.

También criticó que ni siquiera se intentó llegar a la mitad de la población, la que trabaja en el sector informal y eso conllevó a las dramáticas consecuencias que se están conociendo.

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Colombia ocupa el puesto 12 el en mundo como con el país mayor número de contagios, con una tasa de desempleo de 21,4 por ciento. Brasil, que ocupa el segundo puesto de contagiados, tiene una cifra de desocupación del 12,9 por ciento, mientras que Chile que está en el puesto 14 (solo dos puestos debajo de Colombia) solo tiene el 11 por ciento de desempleo.  

“Que se haya permitido perder todos los empleos que se han perdido (4,9 millones de puestos de trabajo) va a hacer que la recuperación sea mucho más lenta de que lo que hubiera sido si se hubiera invertido en proteger ese tejido social que hay entre las empresas que ahora no existen y los trabajos que han desaparecido”, indicó Reyes.

Según el informe citado, uno podría creer que si no se invirtió en esa política de protección de la nómina, en seguro de desempleo y en el caudal de trabajadores informales, es porque no había el dinero para hacerlo. Pero el 1 de mayo el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) aprobó por dos años un nuevo acuerdo de Línea de Crédito Flexible para Colombia, diseñado para la prevención de crisis, por cerca de US$10.800 millones.

Además, un mes antes de la decisión del FMI y luego de que la Presidencia decretara el Estado de Emergencia Nacional debido a la COVID-19, Colombia recibió del Banco Mundial un desembolso de US$250 millones, de un préstamo para políticas de desarrollo.

“En el Fondo de Mitigación de Emergencias (Fome), que se creó para responder a la crisis de la pandemia, hay en estos momentos recursos sin usar que hubieran alcanzado para subsidiar las nóminas de todos los empleos formales que se perdieron durante los meses de la cuarentena estricta”.

Reyes añade que el gobierno ha manejado una estrategia de relaciones públicas que busca hacer parecer que se está gastando mucho en la atención a la pandemia y repite insistentemente que se está invirtiendo en la recuperación el 11 % del PIB. Eso representa 117 billones, una cifra enorme.

Pero el experto aclara que la mayoría de esos recursos no se destinan al gasto sino a garantías de crédito, es decir a otorgar créditos a personas y a empresas y, en caso de que no puedan pagar, el gobierno se compromete a sacar el dinero.  

Carlos Reyes es enfático en decir para RFI que “en este momento la gente no necesita créditos. Ningún inversionista razonable va a endeudarse para pagar salarios o alquiler de una empresa que no está generando ningún tipo de ingreso”.

Para el 3 de agosto apenas se habían desembolsado 11 billones de pesos, pero eso no quiere decir que se hubieran ejecutado, solamente cambiaron de bolsillo, pues pasaron del Ministerio de Hacienda a otras entidades del Gobierno Nacional.

El director del Observatorio Fiscal de la Javeriana definitivamente no entiende lo que hay detrás de esta extraña filosofía de ahorro, cuando más se debe invertir en el futuro del país. Y existiendo los recursos para hacerlo.

Según Carlos Reyes para RFI, “lo que puede resultar barato para este gobierno, le va a salir muy caro al país”.

Lea el informe completo de RFI aquí.  

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