Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA
Según el DANE, el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) creció solamente 1,1% en el primer trimestre de 2020. Ello implica que el crecimiento este año va a ser negativo, y puede llegar a 11,0% si no se adoptan medidas urgentes.
Yo había calculado un crecimiento de 1,4% en el primer trimestre y caída en todo el año entre 2,1% y 8,0%. Con esta nueva información se recalcula la tasa de crecimiento, llegando a cifras entre 8,5% y 11,1%. Tendremos la mayor caída en 100 años, superior al 4,8% de 1998.
Nuevas simulaciones para 2020
En el cuadro 1 se presentan las nuevas simulaciones del crecimiento del PIB para 2020 en Colombia.
Se presentan tres alternativas, partiendo de una caída del PIB en el primer trimestre de 1,1%.
La primera alternativa considera el aislamiento de abril con reducción del PB en 41,5%. Se supone adicionalmente un mes equivalente de confinamiento dado que la mayor parte de mayo estuvo cerrada la economía y en junio no se va abril totalmente. Para los meses de junio a diciembre la economía se reactiva y el PIB crece 1,5%. En esta alternativa, la más pesimista, el PIB cae en 2020 en 11,1%.
En la segunda alternativa, la caída en el mes equivalente de confinamiento de mayo, la economía cae 24,9%, y sigue la misma reactivación de junio a diciembre. En estas condiciones el PB cae 8,8 %.
La tercera alternativa, la más optimista a diferencia de la segunda: el PIB crece 2,0% de junio a diciembre y, adicional al aislamiento de abril, se tiene un mayo equivalente en que la economía se reduce en 24,9%, con lo cual disminuye sustancialmente la caída del PIB a 8,5%. Para que esto ocurra se requiere una mayor acción del gobierno para impulsar la demanda agregada, y menor efecto en la demanda del gasto de los consumidores, lo cual no parece obvio.
Cuadro 1 Crecimiento del PIB en 2020 %
Cálculo del crecimiento en 2020
Hay que anotar que antes de la crisis del Covd-19 ya existían síntomas preocupantes en la economía colombiana, por la estructura productiva que viene desde la colonia, dado su centralismo en los bienes primarios.
Los cálculos para determinar la evolución de la economía en 2020 tienen en cuenta que las exportaciones de productos energéticos, petróleo y carbón, van a dar lugar a una caída en las exportaciones de más del 20,0%. En los cálculos se supone un precio promedio del petróleo de $US40 el barril.
Caen los giros por remesas de los colombianos en el exterior, los ingresos por turismo, la inversión extranjera y las exportaciones de productos como las flores y otros.
Po el lado del consumo privado, que explica el 70% del PIB, la reducción en los meses de confinamiento produce una caída mensual del consumo de más del 50%, lo que explica la mayor parte de la reducción del PIB.
Pasado el confinamiento, el consumo no se recuperará totalmente por la pérdida de ingresos, el incremento en el desempleo y una política terriblemente equivocada de los ortodoxos del gobierno de Iván Duque, concentrada en salvar y aumentar las ganancias del sector financiero y apoyo a las grandes empresas, olvidándose de las mini y pequeñas empresas y del sector informal.
Por el lado de la inversión, la del sector privado no se recuperará fácilmente, porque el capitalista invierte si ve oportunidades de ganancia, si ve demanda por sus productos, y un ambiente de estabilidad, lo cual no va a ser cierto, así que se espera una reducción de la inversión en capital.
Solamente queda el gobierno para compensar el déficit en demanda agregada que no la puede dar el sector privado en las circunstancias actuales, pero, da a impresión, que el gobierno, encabezada en su acción económica por el ministro Carrasquilla, cree que las fuerzas del mercado lo resolverán todo, tal vez uno de los pocos sobrevivientes en el mundo, que mantiene aún posiciones radicales neoliberales. Una política activa fiscal y monetaria podría evitar una caída tan fuerte como la pronosticada en este documento.
El gobierno no va a hacer nada más de lo que ya se conoce, un apoyo directo a las personas que no pasará del 3,0% del PIB, a lo sumo, más una inyección de recursos a los bancos, para que presten a las empresas, a tasas usureras, y que no llegará a las mini pequeñas empresas, y mucho menos a los ciudadanos desempleados.
Pero hay otros hechos que pueden complicar la recuperación, como la necedad de algunos alcaldes y gobernadores, aferrados en mantener restricciones a la movilidad de las personas. Si los ciudadanos no salen, cuyo consumo explica el 70,0% del PIB, la recuperación se demorará y la caída será mayor.
El gobierno está dominado por el ministro de Hacienda, quien no va a cambiar su libreto. Él, como sus amigos ortodoxos, cree que todo va a pasar y que nada ocurrirá, que la gente aguantará y se quedará callada. Pero se va a llevar sorpresas.
El consumo de energía eléctrica y la economía
El consumo de energía eléctrica es un buen indicador de lo que ocurre en una economía. Desde que se inició el encerramiento el 16 de marzo, el consumo de energía eléctrica ha venido disminuyendo.
En el cuadro 2 se presenta información de XM, empresa de ISA especializada en la gestión en tiempo real del sector eléctrico, para el período del 20 de marzo al 23 de mayo, donde se ve que el consumo en algunos sectores diferentes al residencial cayó fuertemente. Se divide la información entre los períodos del 20 de marzo al 26 de abril y del 27 de abril al 23 de mayo.
En el primer período, de paro casi total de todas las actividades productivas, el consumo cayó en todos los sectores, con disminuciones altas que llegan hasta 61%.
En el período del 27 de abril al 23 de mayo, cuando algunos sectores comenzaron a operar, la demanda sigue disminuyendo, pero a ritmos menores que en el primer período.
Esto es una señal adicional de que la economía se derrumbó del 20 de marzo al 23 de mayo. Dada una elasticidad del PIB con relación al consumo de energía eléctrica superior a 1, por este lado de la oferta de los sectores, la economía ha sufrido descensos superiores al 40,0%, lo que va en coincidencia con el análisis que hemos hecho por el lado del gasto.
Cuadro 2 Comportamiento de la demanda en algunos sectores
Reducción de consumo de energía eléctrica en %
Conclusiones
En definitiva, se va a tener una gran caída del PIB en 2020, en una banda que va de un 8,5% optimista (que se presenta como base de comparación) a uno pesimista de 11,1 y a uno intermedio de 8,8%. Es difícil determinar el valor exacto, pero creemos que la caída del PIB puede ser de por lo menos de 9,0%, ya que no se ve, ni por el ámbito internacional ni por las políticas internas, que la situación pueda mejorar suficientemente.
Una consecuencia de esta situación lamentable, es la pérdida de empleos, que en abril llevó a una tasa de desempleo de 19,6%, aunque en realidad es más alta porque miles de colombianos no buscaron empleo ya que no existían oportunidades para encontrarlo. Pero esta tasa debe haber aumentado en mayo y seguramente en junio. Esto es una verdadera bomba social, que se va a reflejar en pobreza, hambre, enfermedades, protestas, incremento de la criminalidad, lucha del capital para mantener su tasa de ganancia, conflicto social, en general.
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