La pobreza monetaria crecerá como espuma

Por HUMBERTO TOBÓN

Todos los estudios de las entidades públicas nacionales, los centros académicos especializados y los organismos internacionales, coinciden en que una vez concluya la pandemia de la Covid19, la pobreza crecerá, aunque difieren en su magnitud.

La última cifra de pobreza monetaria revelada por el DANE, da cuenta de que en 2018 esta llegó al 27%, creciendo 0,1 punto porcentual (pp) frente a 2017 (un primer signo de alarma). En cifras redondas, los pobres sumaban 13 millones.

Frente a la ocurrencia de la Covid19, Planeación Nacional hizo público entre los especialistas un estudio (primero de mayo de 2020) sobre los impactos de esta pandemia en las cifras de pobreza. El escenario más positivo es que la pobreza monetaria crecería 3,5 puntos porcentuales y los pobres serían 15,4 millones al finalizar 2020. El escenario más negativo (aunque es el más realista), concluye que habría un aumento de la pobreza de 9,6 puntos porcentuales, lo que significa que Colombia tendría 18,4 millones de pobres.

La pobreza nacional por ingresos aumentaría 15 puntos porcentuales y afectaría a 21,2 millones de personas. Imagen tomada de Elpais.com.co

La Comisión Económica para América Latina prefirió irse por una línea intermedia y dice que la pobreza aumentaría 5.5 puntos porcentuales y que el país finalizaría el año con 16,4 millones de pobres.

Mientras que la Universidad de Los Andes a través del Observatorio de Coyuntura Económica y Social, concluyó que la pobreza nacional por ingresos aumentaría 15 puntos porcentuales y esto afectaría a 21,2 millones de personas.

Dicho de manera más sencilla, los estudios consideran que llegarían a la línea de la pobreza entre 1,8 millones y 7,5 millones de nuevas personas. Un hecho histórico que hace que los avances logrados por Colombia en la última década prácticamente se pierdan en tres meses.

Las razones de este dramático aumento de la pobreza tienen que ver con las consecuencias generadas por el confinamiento obligatorio ordenado por las autoridades gubernamentales, que paralizó alrededor del 80% de las actividades económicas e hizo que se perdieran 1,6 millones de puestos de trabajo formal (dato DANE de enero a marzo de 2020) y que la mayoría de la población en condición de informalidad se quedara prácticamente sin ingresos, golpeando especialmente a aquellos considerados como de clase media-baja (muy vulnerables), o sea familias con ingresos mensuales cercanos a $1,2 millones.

Teniendo como base el informe de Planeación Nacional (mayo 2020), los departamentos del eje cafetero, por ejemplo, tendrían impactos severos. En el mejor escenario Caldas aumentaría la pobreza de 22.1% (2018) a 25% (2020), Quindío de 24,1% a 28,3% y Risaralda de 17,7% a 21,3%, respectivamente.

En el peor escenario, pero más realista, la pobreza aumentaría con base en los datos de 2018 en 11,6 puntos porcentuales (pp) en Caldas; 11,3 pp en Quindío; y 12,3 pp en Risaralda, lo cual dejaría el índice de pobreza monetaria al finalizar 2020 en 33,7%, 35,3% y 30,1%, respectivamente, en cada uno de estos tres departamentos.

La solución a estos gravísimos impactos está en las decisiones macroeconómicas del gobierno nacional y en el comportamiento de la economía general del país. Las autoridades municipales y departamentales tienen una contribución marginal en los temas de pobreza monetaria.

@humbertotobon

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