Un camino largo y doloroso

Por HUMBERTO TOBÓN

Está ocurriendo lo que todos sospechábamos que pasaría como consecuencia de la pandemia del Covid19: la economía se fue al suelo, el desempleo creció y la pobreza nos hizo retroceder varios lustros.

La economía se mueve por impulsos, por percepciones o por coyunturas, y durante la ocurrencia de la pandemia se han combinado todas las variables negativas, lo que ha conducido a una crisis mundial, que arrastró por igual tanto a China, Alemania y Estados Unidos, como a Perú, España y Colombia.

Todos los países han visto caer los indicadores básicos de sus economías, ante la impotencia de los gobiernos para ponerle freno a la situación. Sin embargo, es evidente que los países más ricos tomaron decisiones más rápidas para intentar contener la debacle, sin lograrlo plenamente de momento, pero les permitirá una recuperación más rápida. Una de esas decisiones de Estado fue poner dinero suficiente en las manos de las familias (ingreso básico universal) para que mantuvieran cierto nivel de gasto que impidiera la parálisis total de los factores económicos.

Se impone en adelante un plan de salvamento integral, liderado por el gobierno central. Foto tomada de achet.cl – Foto de portada, tomada de El Tiempo.

En el caso de Colombia, las medidas de contención del desplome de la economía se están dando a cuentagotas, de forma sectorizada, en cifras muy reducidas y en muchas ocasiones a destiempo.

Tener un desempleo del 24,5% (DANE, trimestre marzo a mayo de 2020) en las trece principales ciudades colombianas y uno general para todo el país de 21,4% (aunque investigaciones independientes hablan de cifras del 30%); previsiones de una caída de la economía en 2020 que se moverá entre 5% y 10% (en abril cayó el 20%) según Anif, Fedesarrollo, Ocde, Banco Mundial y FMI; y un nivel de pobreza monetaria que supera el 42% (veníamos del 27% en 2018), dejan ver un panorama sombrío y aterrador.

La recuperación económica y social no será tarea fácil. Tardará varios años y el proceso será doloroso, porque el gobierno nacional aduce no tener los recursos necesarios para enfrentar las consecuencias que deja la Covid19, y pone en manos de los gobiernos locales y territoriales gran parte de la responsabilidad de encontrar y financiar salidas a la crisis. Pero gobernaciones y alcaldías están viviendo un verdadero calvario fiscal, porque sus ingresos, al igual que los nacionales, han descendido como nunca antes.

Se impone en adelante, un plan de salvamento integral, donde la pauta la debe liderar el gobierno central, a través de políticas macroeconómicas, muchas de las cuales tienen que desafiar las recetas tradicionales que aprendimos los economistas. Porque una crisis como la actual, no encaja en el recetario académico y político que nos han ofertado.

@humbertotobon

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