Los efectos políticos dejados por las multitudinarias marchas del 21N deben medirse en el corto y en el mediano plazo. De manera coyuntural, dejaron entrever un enorme malestar político-social de cientos de miles de jóvenes – y de gente mayor- que no se sienten representados por el actual presidente y su gobierno, y mucho menos sienten recogidas sus aspiraciones y demandas por una clase política que cada vez más vive de la política y no para la política.
El impacto de las movilizaciones fue innegable, hasta el punto de que en varios medios afectos al Gobierno se habló de crisis política. Sin embargo, a esa fuerza le faltó un liderazgo político recogido en una figura política joven.
Ese malestar político-social que evidenciaron las marchas se enfrenta desde ya a un grave problema: los ciudadanos que se expresaron ese jueves 21 y que lo siguen haciendo, no tienen representación política, a lo que se suma que no creen en la clase política y que necesitan con urgencia organizarse políticamente y formarse académicamente para que en unos años puedan ser una opción de poder que por lo menos recoja ese malestar generalizado de los estudiantes de universidades privadas y públicas (estatales).
Si deciden trascender a la arena política, ojalá no caigan en los errores históricos cometidos por los sectores de la llamada Izquierda. Entre estos, de llegar siempre divididos. Pero que tampoco aprendan de las prácticas mafiosas en las que incurren de tiempo atrás los sectores de la Derecha. Esa parte del Congreso que hoy está aprobando una ley que beneficiará, entre otros, al condenado y corrupto Andrés Felipe Arias, es la expresión clara de ese ethos mafioso que los jóvenes no pueden dejar entrar en sus huestes.
Asustados por el nivel de crispación, tanto el presidente como sus aliados supieron resguardar sus intereses en la militarización de las marchas y de las protestas. Y en esa medida, los jóvenes y demás marchantes fueron elevados a la condición de “nuevo enemigo interno” por un Presidente atado no solo a sus propios miedos, fruto de su inexperiencia, sino a la tradición belicista, confrontadora y amenazante de su mentor (Álvaro Uribe) quien durante sus ocho años de administración impuso el Todo Vale en materia ética y el embrujo autoritario en lo concerniente al respeto de los derechos humanos, entre estos, el derecho a protestar.
Frente al papel jugado por las bancadas de la Oposición, hay que decir que estas dejaron entrever su debilidad, falta de cohesión e incapacidad para confrontar al gobierno de Duque y a la clase empresarial que lo respalda. En esas circunstancias, los partidos de Oposición se quedaron territorialmente anclados a protestar dentro del recinto congresional y a develar las iniciativas legislativas del partido de gobierno, acompañado por los conservadores, liberales y Cambio Radical.
Al actuar desde una prudente distancia de los promotores del Paro, los congresistas de la Oposición más visibles, como Gustavo Petro, terminaron enredados en luchas político-mediáticas ocurridas en las redes sociales y víctima del foco estigmatizador del Gobierno de Duque Márquez. La tarea urgente es contactar a esos jóvenes, formarlos política y académicamente, para en el mediano plazo sean opción de poder.
La labilidad de la Oposición en el Congreso de la República está profundamente anclada a la también raquítica Sociedad Civil colombiana, en la que confluyen los más disímiles intereses y agentes de poder, separados cada uno por sus agendas particulares. Varios agentes de esa famélica y atomizada sociedad civil guardan estrecha relación con poderosos agentes económicos, interesados, por supuesto, en mantener y extender en el tiempo sus privilegios de clase, la lógica de los mesocontratos y las rentas-privilegios (Revéiz, 1997).
Esto es, la puerta giratoria que hace posible que los gremios impongan ministros, asegurando por esa vía la consolidación de gobiernos corporativos. El de Duque sin duda tiene ese carácter, de allí la dificultad de los sectores que confluyen en el Comité del Paro Nacional para lograr negociar en igualdad de condiciones.
A pesar de esas complejas circunstancias socio-políticas en las que opera la anémica sociedad civil colombiana, la clase empresarial y el llamado uribismo, al que se suman sin mayor resistencia políticos como Germán Vargas Lleras y Rodrigo Lara Restrepo, quedaron notificados: hay un importante sector de la sociedad, en especial jóvenes universitarios, que entendieron que sus aspiraciones y proyectos individuales entran en colisión con una clase política anacrónica a la que no le tienen miedo y mucho menos, respeto.
Es posible que esa no sea una preocupación mayor para los agentes del Establecimiento que dieron el apoyo al debilitado gobierno de Duque, pero sí lo es para los líderes de los partidos Conservador, Liberal, Centro Democrático y Cambio Radical, de cara a las elecciones de 2002. Es en ese escenario en el que las marchas del 21N y las consecutivas movilizaciones mostrarán sus mayores y reales efectos.
Dependerá, eso sí, de que los estudiantes universitarios se organicen en un movimiento social, de carácter nacional y con aspiraciones políticas. De igual manera, están obligados a consolidar una agenda política de mediano y largo plazo, que les permita posicionar un par de líderes o lideresas, capaces de competir en el escenario político-electoral, aprovechando un hecho real: hay una evidente crisis de liderazgo dentro de los partidos de gobierno. No tienen en estos momentos un líder o una líder, capaz de recoger las raídas banderas del desarrollo y del progreso.
Es tal la crisis de liderazgo al interior de los sectores de la Derecha colombiana, que Iván Duque representa, con creces, los aprietos por los que pasa la Derecha en esa materia. Esa es la preocupación más grande que hoy tiene esa parte del Establecimiento. Solo les queda jugársela por Sergio Fajardo, un carismático político que lleva sobre sus espaldas varios pesados “bultos”: el primero, la corrupción y los problemas técnicos dados en la construcción de Hidroituango; el segundo, todo lo que confluye en esa espuria, pero contundente categoría: “Donbernabilidad”; y el tercero, el devenir como una suerte de uribista enclosetado. Esta última carga, por el contrario, es su puerta de entrada a ese sector de poder que está preocupado por no tener una figura política que convenza para el 2022.
Quizá entonces la “conversación nacional” termine siendo un total fracaso tanto para el gobierno, como para los sectores que confluyen en el Comité Nacional del Paro. Pero ese resultado negativo se podrá catapultar a favor de los inconformes en las próximas elecciones. Dejar que la Derecha y la extrema derecha se hundan en su propio fango abrirá el camino para que soplen nuevos vientos para el país.
Como van las cosas, el gobierno de Duque no cederá y mucho menos lo hará la bancada oficialista en el Congreso. Por eso, al presidente hay que decirle: Viejo, hablamos en el 2022. Amanecerá y veremos.
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