Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA
El desempleo ya era alto antes de marzo de 2020, cercano al 11%. Con la pandemia, por la recesión económica se ha ido a tasas de más de16%. Y permanecerán altas, por encima de 15%, y solo bajarán a cifras de 10% cuando la economía se recupere totalmente, lo cual debe ocurrir en el año 2022 o 2023.
En septiembre según el DANE la tasa de desempleo fue del 15,8%, la tasa de ocupación de 50,6% y la tasa de participación de 60,1%, 2,7 puntos menos que en septiembre de 2019.
En realidad el desempleo es mayor que el detectado, ya que la tasa de participación disminuyó. Esto quiere decir que un millón de colombianos dejaron de buscar trabajo, se cansaron, porque no vieron ninguna oportunidad de lograrlo. Si esta cifra se agrega a la de los desocupados, se tiene una tasa de desempleo alrededor del 17,8%.
Siguen altas tasas de desempleo
En el cuadro 1 se presentan los principales indicadores laborales nacionales. Los desocupados aumentaron de 3.405 miles en febrero, mes prepandemia, a un máximo de 4.694 miles en mayo; se redujeron levemente en junio y julio entre 161 y 135 miles; disminuyeron a 3965 miles de desocupados en agosto y a 3.788 miles en septiembre, es decir, 1.219 miles menos que en febrero.
Pero, al tener en cuenta que 1.031 miles de personas dejaron de buscar empleo, se puede afirmar que los desocupados crecieron en 2.250 miles en comparación con febrero.
Paralelamente, los ocupados cayeron de 20.006 miles en febrero a un mínimo de 16.525 en abril; aumentaron en mayo, junio, pero vuelven a caer en julio y agosto, para incrementarse a 20.232 en septiembre, un aumento de 1774 miles con respecto a febrero.
La población económicamente activa -PEA de 25.051 miles en febrero bajó a un minino de 20.607 miles abril y subió continuamente hasta llegar a 24.020 en septiembre, 1.031 miles menos que en febrero.
La población en edad de trabajar-PET subió lentamente, de 39.668 miles en febrero a 39.960 miles en septiembre.
La tasa de desempleo-TD pasó de 12,2% en febrero a un máximo de 21,4% en mayo, en plena cuarentena, manteniéndose alta en junio y julio; comenzó a bajar en agosto y septiembre a 16,8% y 15,8%.
Fuente: DANE
Alto el desempleo urbano
En las trece ciudades y áreas metropolitanas, es decir, en las áreas urbanas, la tasa de desempleo fue de 18,3% en septiembre. Aunque se ha recuperado respecto a febrero de 2020, es una tasa muy alta. La población económicamente activa de 11.896 miles en septiembre, está por debajo de la de febrero en 339 miles, o sea, que teniendo en cuenta este hecho, la tasa de desempleo se acerca 20,7%. Una situación muy grave, que lleva a pobreza, desigualdad y conflictos sociales (cuadro 2).
Cuadro 2 Principales indicadores labores en 13 ciudades y sus áreas metropolitanas
Fuente: DANE
Por ciudades, para el trimestre julio-septiembre 2020, en 23 ciudades la tasa de desempleo fue de 21,0% y en 13 y sus áreas metropolitanas fue de 20,8%. En comparación con 2019, Bogotá, con una tasa de desempleo de 22%, fue donde más aumentó el desempleo, con un incremento de 12 puntos, reflejo de las restricciones que comenzaron más temprano en la capital.
Por sexo y edad, como siempre, los más perjudicados son las mujeres y los jóvenes.
La historia de la ciclicidad de las variables laborales señala que normalmente los indicadores mejoran de febrero hasta noviembre y en diciembre y enero empeoran.
La tragedia del desempleo es enorme, y más en Colombia, donde el gobierno nacional no ha querido tomar medidas de alivio adecuados para millones de colombianos, no solamente a los que llaman vulnerables, sino para los miles de miles que pertenecían a la case media. La insensibilidad del gobierno y de su ministro de Hacienda es impresionante, de no creer. Y, por supuesto, nada de míseros 160.000 pesos o si acaso máximo 300,000 pesos, sino un ingreso igual al salario mínimo. Ya no lo hicieron… ni lo harán.
Sobre el autor o autora
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Your style is so unique compared to other folks I’ve read stuff from. I appreciate you for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this blog.
This is the right blog for everyone who would like to find out about this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually will need toÖHaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a subject that’s been written about for decades. Great stuff, just excellent!
Have you ever thought about creating an e-book or guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog based on the same ideas you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would value your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e mail.|
Hi there! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be okay. I’m undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.|
An interesting discussion is worth comment. I think that you should publish more about this topic, it may not be a taboo matter but generally people do not talk about these issues. To the next! Cheers!!
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Good day! I could have sworn Iíve been to this website before but after looking at a few of the posts I realized itís new to me. Regardless, Iím certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and Iíll be bookmarking it and checking back frequently!
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you writing this article and also the rest of the site is also really good.
I needed to thank you for this very good read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it. I have got you book marked to look at new stuff you postÖ
Nice bro thank you.
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Your style is very unique in comparison to other folks I’ve read stuff from. I appreciate you for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I will just bookmark this web site.
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Next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t fail me just as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read through, but I truly thought you would have something helpful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you could fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention.
Great site! I am loving it!! Will come back again. I am bookmarking your feeds also.
Can I just say what a comfort to discover somebody that genuinely knows what they are talking about over the internet. You actually understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people need to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular because you certainly have the gift.
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Great information. Lucky me I ran across your blog by accident (stumbleupon). I have bookmarked it for later!
I seriously love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you build this web site yourself? Please reply back as Iím attempting to create my own website and would love to learn where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Appreciate it!
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Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort to generate a superb articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I put things off a lot and don’t manage to get anything done.
You’re so cool! I don’t think I’ve read through a single thing like that before. So great to discover someone with a few original thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This web site is something that is required on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!
Excellent write-up. I definitely appreciate this website. Keep writing!
Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from an established blog. Is it difficult to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any points or suggestions? Cheers
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