El desempleo no cede, el gobierno es insensible

Por DIEGO OTERO PRADA

El desempleo ya era alto antes de marzo de 2020, cercano al 11%. Con la pandemia, por la recesión económica se ha ido a tasas de más de16%. Y permanecerán altas, por encima de 15%, y solo bajarán a cifras de 10% cuando la economía se recupere totalmente, lo cual debe ocurrir en el año 2022 o 2023.

En septiembre según el DANE la tasa de desempleo fue del 15,8%, la tasa de ocupación de 50,6% y la tasa de participación de 60,1%, 2,7 puntos menos que en septiembre de 2019.

En realidad el desempleo es mayor que el detectado, ya que la tasa de participación disminuyó. Esto quiere decir que un millón de colombianos dejaron de buscar trabajo, se cansaron, porque no vieron ninguna oportunidad de lograrlo. Si esta cifra se agrega a la de los desocupados, se tiene una tasa de desempleo alrededor del 17,8%.

Siguen altas tasas de desempleo

En el cuadro 1 se presentan los principales indicadores laborales nacionales. Los desocupados aumentaron de 3.405 miles en febrero, mes prepandemia, a un máximo de 4.694 miles en mayo; se redujeron levemente en junio y julio entre 161 y 135 miles; disminuyeron a 3965 miles de desocupados en agosto y a 3.788 miles en septiembre, es decir, 1.219 miles menos que en febrero.
Pero, al tener en cuenta que 1.031 miles de personas dejaron de buscar empleo, se puede afirmar que los desocupados crecieron en 2.250 miles en comparación con febrero.

Paralelamente, los ocupados cayeron de 20.006 miles en febrero a un mínimo de 16.525 en abril; aumentaron en mayo, junio, pero vuelven a caer en julio y agosto, para incrementarse a 20.232 en septiembre, un aumento de 1774 miles con respecto a febrero.

La población económicamente activa -PEA de 25.051 miles en febrero bajó a un minino de 20.607 miles abril y subió continuamente hasta llegar a 24.020 en septiembre, 1.031 miles menos que en febrero.

La población en edad de trabajar-PET subió lentamente, de 39.668 miles en febrero a 39.960 miles en septiembre.

La tasa de desempleo-TD pasó de 12,2% en febrero a un máximo de 21,4% en mayo, en plena cuarentena, manteniéndose alta en junio y julio; comenzó a bajar en agosto y septiembre a 16,8% y 15,8%.

Fuente: DANE

Alto el desempleo urbano

En las trece ciudades y áreas metropolitanas, es decir, en las áreas urbanas, la tasa de desempleo fue de 18,3% en septiembre. Aunque se ha recuperado respecto a febrero de 2020, es una tasa muy alta. La población económicamente activa de 11.896 miles en septiembre, está por debajo de la de febrero en 339 miles, o sea, que teniendo en cuenta este hecho, la tasa de desempleo se acerca 20,7%. Una situación muy grave, que lleva a pobreza, desigualdad y conflictos sociales (cuadro 2).

Cuadro 2 Principales indicadores labores en 13 ciudades y sus áreas metropolitanas

Fuente: DANE

Por ciudades, para el trimestre julio-septiembre 2020, en 23 ciudades la tasa de desempleo fue de 21,0% y en 13 y sus áreas metropolitanas fue de 20,8%. En comparación con 2019, Bogotá, con una tasa de desempleo de 22%, fue donde más aumentó el desempleo, con un incremento de 12 puntos, reflejo de las restricciones que comenzaron más temprano en la capital.
Por sexo y edad, como siempre, los más perjudicados son las mujeres y los jóvenes.

La historia de la ciclicidad de las variables laborales señala que normalmente los indicadores mejoran de febrero hasta noviembre y en diciembre y enero empeoran.

La tragedia del desempleo es enorme, y más en Colombia, donde el gobierno nacional no ha querido tomar medidas de alivio adecuados para millones de colombianos, no solamente a los que llaman vulnerables, sino para los miles de miles que pertenecían a la case media. La insensibilidad del gobierno y de su ministro de Hacienda es impresionante, de no creer. Y, por supuesto, nada de míseros 160.000 pesos o si acaso máximo 300,000 pesos, sino un ingreso igual al salario mínimo. Ya no lo hicieron… ni lo harán.

@DiegoOteroP

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